Expectations Hit A Strasburg

Well it's official. The great, sure to be first ballot Hall of Famer, Steven Strasburg has fallen to a torn Ulnar Collateral Ligament. A true shame for the team, player and fans all around. However, this surgery is perhaps a blessing in disguise for the Nationals and Strasburg.

The common treatment for a torn UCL is Tommy John surgery. The average timetable for recovery from this surgery is 12-18 months. Lets assume that the Nationals take every precaution for the surgery and recovery and it takes 18 months. That would put Strasburg on the timeline to be ready for a return to pitching around February of 2012. This philosophy would seem to mirror the uber-precautions that Washington took with Strasburg this year, i.e. 2 DL trips and having him stick to strict pitch counts. The absolute removal of Strasburg from the Nationals for 2011 is beneficial to him, as he will not have to pitch in meaningless games for Washington as they will more likely than not be out of contention by then. However, given the smallest chance that Washington is holding on any hopes of a Wild Card berth or an outside chance of the NL East in the dog days of August, perhaps Washington might be inclined to take the reins off of Strasburg and give him some meaningful starts down the stretch to help them. If you think that the Nationals have an outside shot of being in contention next year, please contact me as I have both  a new shiny bridge to sell you as well as preferred stock in Lehman Brothers.

By being out and rehabbing for 18 months, Strasburg would be on schedule to start the 2012 season. The 2012 season is also the expected arrival of super phenom 1a Bryce Harper. With those two players back, and the Nationals having stuck to a plan of complimentary and accessory players with low costs, like the Tampa Bay Rays of 2008, this team should be a contending force in the NL East. The Mets look to be unable to have any semblance of a winning team until at least 2013 due to their payroll constraints, the Marlins being a good young team but the development of many of their prospects taking time, the Phillies dealing with the aging of their team and the huge Ryan Howard contract causing payroll inflexibility, and the Braves losses of Chipper Jones and Bobby Cox at by next year causes huge holes that look hard to fill.

I'm not saying that the Strasburg injury was a good thing, as it most certainly isn't. According to CNBC analyst Darren Rover, Strasburg's starts brought in an extra $3 million for the Nationals in his 6 home starts. However, this Strasburg injury helps save the Nationals and Steven Strasburg from their own worst enemy: Themselves